PAWARful politics, Supriya superior in succession planning

On April 19, NCP leader Supriya Sule forecast two political earthquakes. One quake was her father and Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar’s announcement of resignation from the party chief’s post. It did cause ripples within the party and as we discussed in previous columns it was more to check his nephew Ajit Pawar’s reported game plans to ally with the BJP to become the Maharashtra Chief Minister. NCP saw a chorus asking the senior Pawar to stay on.

The second quake was the announcement of two working presidents for the NCP – Supriya Sule and Praful Patel with roles defined and divided. Ajit Pawar was left to sulk though he himself and NCP tried to do some damage control of sorts. It was stated that Ajit would continue to focus on Maharashtra political scene.

Supriya gets to handle the national politics, working on a united opposition to the BJP, apart from looking after Maharashtra, Haryana, Punjab, women’s, youth and students’ issues. Moreover, she is in sole control of the NCP’s central; election authority that finalises candidates for various elections. There you are. Supriya will have superior control. Praful will handle Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Jharkhand and Goa where the NCP is trying to make its presence felt. He is happy with his role and he is not as ambitious as Ajit.

That Ajit Pawar has not been happy in the party was crystal clear for a long time and he has shown his anger by action rather than words when he aligned with Devendra Fadnavis in forming a BJP government that lasted barely 72 hours. Some analysts felt that it was also a Sharad Pawar ploy to convey the message as to what he could do to the BJP which has been forming governments in states by hook or by crook. He sent Ajit to be the Deputy CM and then pulled the carpet from under Fadnavis’ feet. Ajit was back in NCP fold – with a Subah ko Bhoola, Shaam Ko Lauta message – to become the Deputy CM again, this time under Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray.

Ajit Pawar is a restless politician and he is in a hurry to become the CM of Maharashtra. His camp asks if the senior Pawar could be the CM at 38, why can’t the junior aspire to head the State at 63? Before Sharad Pawar played his “master stroke”, the media was full of gossip over Ajit defecting to the BJP with the support of 40 MLAs. Forty was the magic figure as Eknath Shinde broke away from the Shiv Sena with as many MLAs and joined an alliance with the BJP to topple Uddhav Thackeray. For a long time, none from the NCP denied Ajit’s reported plans. Was it again part of Sharad Pawar’s game plan to keep the Maha Vikas Aghadi (NCP-Congress-Uddhav Shiv Sena) under his leash? Consider what Supriya said at that time while remarking that she does not follow political rumours. But she sent a between-the-lines message: “It’s sunny today, I can’t say if it’s going to rain in 15 days!”

One may ask as to why are we giving so much importance to the NCP which has basically confined its presence to Maharashtra? Simple. Leader after leader from Mamta to KCR have been meeting Sharad Pawar for forging an opposition alliance. With contradictions and their own ambitions, it is tough to guess as to whether the alliance will succeed. This apprehension arises particularly in the backdrop of the Congress’ own ambition to play big brother. Nonetheless, Pawar’s moves can never be predicted for certain. He ditched Vasant Dada Patil to become CM by forming the Progressive Democratic Front (PDF) with a pack of non-Congress parties, quit the Congress after he was not nominated for the PM’s post and, more recently, masterminded the formation of the MVA to anoint Uddhav Thackeray as the CM.

So, if you ask – what next Mr Pawar, here are some possibilities. Play a key role in the formation of a non-BJP alliance, an increasingly important role for his daughter Supriya in Maharashtra as well as national politics, checkmate BJP’s plans to hijack Ajit (again), and above all keep his tight control over the NCP.

No one knows the political undercurrents better than the man in the street. My taxi driver for years, Sanjay Shinde tells me that in most of rural Maharashtra there are only two forces – either Shiv Sena or the NCP. That was how Bal Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have formed and subsequently strengthened their respective party roots. The BJP came in much later. Now, with the NCP and Sena (Uddhav) forming an alliance with the Congress, the Sena Vs NCP scene has dramatically changed. The BJP has made its entry but its influence remained limited to urban middle class and traders. This probably explains the BJP’s failure to completely sweep the last Lok Sabha or even the Assembly elections. The recent Nagar Panchayat election results clearly demonstrated the combined strength of the Maha Vikas Aghadi which won 944 seats while BJP had to remain contended with 344. It must be remembered here that the MVA constituents fought against each other in some seats.

Though the BJP rode on the Modi wave in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, non-BJP parties won 25 of the 48 seats. Of course, the BJP and Sena were in the Hindutva alliance. Non-BJP alliance now will strive their best to play on the anti-incumbency. Irrespective of the success or failure of national level arrangement with the Congress, Sharad Pawar would like to play his master card as the big dad of the MVA. Having established his strong presence in Maharashtra politics, he has built enough resources. Other editorials may say that much will depend on how Sharad Pawar steers the political scene now in the run-up for the 2024 Lok Sabha poll, we can say for certain that only Pawar knows what he does! Need we say more?

(The columnist is a Mumbai-based independent media veteran, running websites and a YouTube channel known for his thought-provoking messaging.)